Brahmason's Blog

No Mr.Bernanke no . The situation is not uncertain . It is simply dramatic and if we are not carefull we will go beyond the horizon of events into an economic blackhole .

Unfortunately all people sees is the stock exchange and unemployment trends . But before that are the important things cooking .

After a tremendous sigma of bubbles with housing , deficits and debt beyond control the only way out is austerity and recovery of competitivenes with a strong return to "Sillycon" Valley from the Wall Street orgasm of the last many years .

Honestly , do you think that any of the measures adopted recently are in the direction needed ?

The explosion of China’s commercial superavit latest published is not helping but the strengthening of japanese yen may be even more risky than that . What whappens if Japan with the biggest debt in the world deffaults ? They are the second tenants of american debt . Can de japanese go on for ever correcting tensions by a non stop buying of huge amounts of american debt ?

The solution to current world problems deriving from a model of fictious economy cannot be limited to finacial measures and public stimoulus of demand . Austerity and a stronger buying power by work ( because they are a majority and ensure extended demand ) rents is needed without credit as main protagonist .

That certainly will take time because it implies further improvement of added value in production and services but patience is the only recipe for that . Increase of added value per unit of GDP increase is the answer . That , will require direct investment in high technology areas and consequently an intelligent stimulation scheme that will drive money to those areas of investment and refrain it from going into the stock exchange and housing speculation .

Brahmason

Todo lo anticipado por Brahmason se consuma.

Todo está preparado para una fuerte estangflación en economías con PIB’s de bajo valor añadido como España y una burbuja de alto protagonismo que hace desplomarse la demanda real en un 40 o 50 %.

Los costos de energía y materias primas en esa situación de demanda reducida endémica , serán insoportables para el 70 % de las empresas ligadas al protagonismo de la construcción.

No hay salida sin austeridad y sin la recuperación de la demanda real mediante la recuperación del poder adquisitivo ( mucho tiempo para ello ).Mucho paro es ya inevitable.

La demanda incentivada artificialmente sin cambio de modelo , nos llevará a una situación mucho peor tras incluso una período transitorio de alta inflación que introducirá procesos de alta volatilidad .

Nadie desgraciadamente sabe gran cosa de la teoría de burbujas ni en España ni en muchos otros países y el que sabe está empezando a callar porque la situación es verdaderamente próxima a la antesala del abismo.

Brahmason