US Economy pointing to acceptable closure of the current year .

House prices according to Shiller have shown 3 % increase in September as regards prices in September last year , with sales reactivating slightly after long continuous decrease .

Even so it should be recalled that price reduction since 2007 have dropped an accumulated 30 % and that the mortgage cost ( fixed for 30 years mortgage ) is at its lowest in 3.31 % and average american house is currently priced a bit over 160.000 $ .

The Richmond Manufacturing Index has strongly mounted to 9 from a previous negative reading widely beating the experts consensus and this is a consistent data because it is based on facts and figures concerning orders , shipments etc…

The consumer sentiment has also shown some improvement on previous figures mostly on the trust that Obama’s plan to fight unemployment will be successful .

I do not believe that housing is initiating a real lasting recovery . The doubts and problems of economy as a whole have moved some investors and high segment americans to spend some money in housing as one of the simpler ways of using part of their savings with no many alternatives at sight and a stock exchange that begins to show terribly dangerous .

The big problems remain and we will only see what can be expected well advanced the first 2013 quarter .

Of course fiscal cliff remains as a real source of volatility , but the real expert knows that this can only have a negative effect if not duly solved at the House of Representatives with no bearing in the solution of historic problems of economy .

Real problems of american economy are the huge debt at private and corporate level plus the lack of competitiveness to balance budget and external deficits and that is something that will require a very long time to show substantial improvement and will demand strong sacrifices by investors with real pains to the stock exchange , wich by the way is not the real economy as many pretend . Stock exchange is only an ingredient of real economy and has to behave as such .

When markets indexes are lifted on expectations we are creating bubbles . Gains in markets should come after consolidated improvement of real economy and believe me this is one of the aspects that future economy will impose .

Finally we should not disregard the impact of volatility caused by the weakness of european and japanese economies whose problems are also nearly out of control because growth every where is based in continuous credit ( debt increase and inflation ) instead of being the result of real added value processes with a vigorous middle class sharing the resulting increase of reachness .


Published in: on noviembre 28, 2012 at 10:34 am  Comments (8)  

Summary of world economic aspects that point to unavoidable Armageddon .

Sovereign world debt has doubled since 2007 and signs are that it should accelerate unless drastic changes are introduced in tax and rates policies .

US mortgage rates at historical lowest .30 years mortgage at 3.31 % and house sales and building , hardly recovering on isolated actions .

SONY and Panasonic debt lowered to junk bonds level by rating agencies .

Negligible rates are not solving the stagnation of economy and have become a time bomb to debt holders .

The problem of economy is not at all liquidity . There is plenty of liquidity . The real problem is that money does not have a single place to go with reasonable guaranties .

Japan is proving to be a victim of its own currency policies . Using resources to keep yen low is wrong . In the present world situation with stagnation and deflation prevailing , a country bound to export over half of its production simply has no future unless living standards are reduced by half and even so the new balance would be difficult to reach . The best option is to promote a much stronger purchase capacity of japanese citizens acting on taxes to better redistribute resources and promote consumption through a more vigorous  medium class . The secondary market of sovereign debt must be promoted to foreign investors too .

US and other countries are unable to control the continuous loss of purchase capacity resulting from growing unemployment and relocation of employment from higher added value areas because of the loss of competitiveness .The US must find the way to redirect investments from Wall St to long term direct investments in areas of high added value employing high rank workforce and consumption must be stimulated specially in population areas with solid purchase capacity while avoiding further private indebtment .

Europe on the verge of extended social unrest because politicians also in Europe or specifically in Europe , ignore that recovering economic balance on purchase capacity loss will only take the markets demand to levels of the last century fifties .

It is time to decide that the only way out is to change tax and rates policies together with a reestructure of world debt , even if a number of investors loose 60 % of their investments in exchange of a recovery of demand by stimulation of long term direct investments in added value areas with a well paid high ranked workforce .

Unless a vigorous middle class is recovered car and other big scale production units are bound to collapse , because demand cannot be based for ever on a growing private indebtment .

The problem is that politicians in charge are not up to the required standards of capacity to understand and solve the situation .


Published in: on noviembre 24, 2012 at 10:32 am  Comments (54)  

Los ocho vientos del chan

Honor y deshonra , alabanza y censura , prosperidad y decadencia ,placer y sufrimiento .

Sólo cuando estés libre de la influencia de cada uno de los ocho vientos mundanos estarás libre para practicar el zen .

No hay más enemigo que el ego e incluso con el has de ser compasivo .Pero nada ocurre que no tenga origen en nuestras propias acciones .

Lo uno lleva a lo otro hasta que ocurre el presente .

El problema no es tanto la emoción como la reacción que la sigue .Observa con atención ecuánime hasta que entiendas que el yo en cada momento no es más que el resultado de la relación entre lo que nos rodea y lo que sentimos y que el ser sólo tine sentido como parte del todo .

La culminación llega con la ausencia de intención que es substituída por la espontaneidad que surge de la percepción libre de obsesiones , apegos y rechazos .


Published in: on noviembre 14, 2012 at 7:42 am  Comments (7)  

Obama’s win and the future of earth planet inhabitants .

Obama has won and his main election instrument has been «the creation of a healthy middle class » .

If big companies around the world making cars and other consumer goods are to safely sell their production , they need a big middle class with enough purchase capacity to buy their products and services .

If say , 5% of society has an exceptional purchase power and the rest is merely surviving , consumer goods manufacturers will collapse .

The possibility of keeping economy going on a drastic uneven distribution of richness , is only relying on a perpetually increasing credit policy for a middle class with low purchase capacity . The debt resulting from that set up will reach levels out of control and will never be paid back .

That is where we are now .

Obama perceives that . The sad news is that many americans as well as many other actors of this planet seem to ignore it .

The election results provide a promising opportunity . But Obama depends on the house of representatives to achieve targets and yet …does Obama and his team know how to achieve » the creation of a healthy middle class » or is it just a wishful thinking election argument ?

If he knows , he is the only political leader that knows how to achieve it in this planet .

Basically the main problem lays in the set up of a tax scheme that will stimulate investments in areas of bigger added value projects , ventures and companies .
Investors will have to be reeducated thus in their routine which is currently concentrating in real-estate , stock exchange , commodities and currency speculation because of the absence of such scheme to provide for alternative opportunities .

The creation of a «basket-currency» would help to prevent much of the current volatility . The chinese yuan should be integrated in that «basket-currency».

My opinion ? Achieving it would be near to a miracle . I believe world greed and ignorance are so strong that we are bound for a well deserved Armageddon .


Published in: on noviembre 8, 2012 at 9:51 am  Comments (35)