Dóllar , Euro and Yen

Who has read Brahmason´s reflexions for some time now know , that we predicted the following :

-The USA economy will only have the chance of recovering on a "weak" dóllar and a partial return of priorities from Wall St. to Sylicon Valley throughout a period of austerity .

-The dóllar need to consolidate 1 € = 1.55 $ and 1 $ = 86 yens for at least three years to help a platform of recovery .

-The global demand should see a transfer from the U.S.A. to Asia.

-The fall of southern european economies into situations bordering solvency rupture , has forced a sudden drop of the euro to the 1.20 $ which should allow old investments in dollars to recover liquidity.

-The weakness of USA economy with dramatic deficits , debt and low competitiveness tells , that investing further in dollars is more than just risky . But imbalances in Europe are as dramatic and therefore volatility is inevitable for a very long period .

-The yen heavily affected by the biggest debt in the world and the consequences of the strong housing bubble from the late eighties plus the need for a further sofistication of the GDP added value , to escape competition from asian neighbours , has found temporary relief in a fictiously strong dóllar and the flow of carry trades with destination in China and India etc..

But dóllar and euro handicaps are already bearing negatively in the strategies of Japan and escaping deflation will need a lot of efforts and creativity .

Pretending that China and the yuan solve the deep economic problems of dóllar , yen and euro is irrealistic and hypocrit .


Published in: on junio 30, 2010 at 1:16 pm  Deja un comentario  

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