Brahmason's Blog

As real economists know the life of companies is not eternal . The reasons are that sooner or later someone comes out with more advanced proposals or that the product or service of the old company is no longer in fashion or has become too expensive to the perception of demand .

With world big changes occurring so fast the old traditions and routines are no longer providing the expected answers to people getting fresh information that cause them to look for more advanced arguments that will help eliminate the tensions caused by the old routine or teachings in their confrontation with updated reality .

The answers to new challenges are rarely found in books . If you build up your future on what you read in a book , you will always be lagging behind those writing the books .

The answers in fact are inside yourself and depend on your capacity to observe the many options provided by the environment including ideas and opinions af all kinds .

That is only possible from an attitude of ecuanimity and perception based on intuitive direct thinking which finds out the logics of every attitude or event without being influenced by any kind of attachements .

Why do you think that the so called creative people are paid so much for their feedings ? Why do you think these people spend most of their time isolated in environments hardly in sinthony with the standard settings that we are familiar with ?

This works even at scientific research level . The most succesful scientist is the one that can perceive things as a function of the environment in time and space while ignoring obsessions of past logics which are only practical for final checking of matching between new and old realities .

As Alvin Toffler and many others advanced , the real problem of humans is to cope with the change of realities which demand sufficient updated education to assume without shocks and suffering the new coordinates of the space-time continue where our existence is occurring .

Brahmason

Now , what is the amount of jobs that private non agricultural sector has to add to really being able to talk about real recovery ?

As long as the added private jobs do not surpass 280.000 and keep the upgoing trend for a long period I doubt anybody may really feel that things are progressing the way we would like them to progress .

Further more , real recovery has to show a bigger percentage of jobs in the industry rather than in the retail and leisure segments which in all probability refer to seasonal or short term precarious openings .

The jobs have to be connected with high technology industries and account for a bigger salary level which only companies producing added value goods and services can pay . That is the only way to creating reachness and consequently enable USA to match imbalances .

Securing strong purchase power through enlargement of the percentage of well paid professionals in advanced industries is the best to guarantee durable quality consumption. That of course will require some stimulous to money going into that kind of investments better than Q indiscriminate stimulous plans which can only promote the advance of purchasses or the promotion of a low added value demand which will worsen the future behaviour of the market .

Brahmason

Observe China and India and eventually Germany .

Demand goes up no matter what happens to interest rates as long as purchassing power holds on and reachmess is being built up without resorting to more credit than individuals or corporations should require . Debt has to be held within healthy limits .

What you get by acting on types is either holding inflation or accelerating it depending on whether you increase ot reduce types .

At the end of the day however reducing types or holding them low for a too long period , does not propell activity as long as purchase power is weakening . All you get is costs inflation which adds to the burden of the economy to grow and more specifically to grow creating reachness ( added value ) .

The bubbles created due to old speculative principles are leading the economy further into the mud from which right now is impossible to escape unless drastic measures are applied everywhere at all levels .

Brhmason

Contrary to what has been argued about the need for Japan to repatriate trillions of yens to cope with the investment local needs to rebuild dammages caused by earthquake , tsunami and nuclear leakage , we believe that the best option for Japan is to issue as much fresh debt as necessary for that task .

This would keep the yen low and allow exports to match loss of local consumption at a time when the dollar is also pressed to a lower rate because of the problems resulting from american restrictions caused by mounting deficits .

The negative aspect of this is its effect on the strengthening of euro and yuan unless chinese and europeans find the way to contain the pressure on their currencies .

Brahmason

14.29 trillones $ es el límite legal permitido . Pero ese dinero se termina según Geitner el 16 de Mayo como muy tarde y apenas una cantidad adicional que permitiría respirar hasta Agosto se podría habilitar sin transgredir la ley en vigor .

El plan de Obama para reducir 4 trillones $ de deficit acumulado en los próximos 12 años no parece ser suficiente para convencer al senado de la necesidad "imperiosa" de aumentar la capacidad de endeudamiento actual que el presupuesto necesita para manejar las "necesidades del estado americano".

Con esta situación y la política de relajación monetaria que no parece tener visos de cambiar en los próximos meses , el dólar se puede ir a 1 € = 1.60 $ y 1 $ = 78 yens . Lo malo de esta caída no es tanto el valor como la rapidez conque se podría producir . Japón y la Europa periférica serían las victimas más directas .

Brahmason